Risk Categories
Each category below is a pattern our automated model measures in public market or on-chain data. Matching a pattern describes the data; it is not a finding that an asset is a scam or that anyone has done anything wrong.
Deep Drawdown, Thin Liquidity
These assets trade far below their all-time high with very little liquidity relative to their size. It is a measurement, not a verdict: the same pattern describes collapsed tokens and assets in a long bear market alike. When a price is far off its peak and daily turnover is a tiny fraction of market cap, exiting a position can move the price against you. That is a liquidity risk regardless of why the drawdown happened, and it says nothing about the conduct of anyone involved.
Red Flags
- ⚠Down 85%+ from the all-time high
- ⚠Daily volume under a few percent of market cap
- ⚠Thin order books — a modest sell moves the price
- ⚠No recovery across multiple market cycles
- ⚠Check the project’s own channels before drawing conclusions
Sharp Move, High Volume
A large 24-hour price move on trading volume that is high relative to market cap. This describes the market data; it is not a finding that anyone coordinated the move. Sharp moves on heavy volume happen after real news as well as in pump-and-dump schemes, where organised buying lifts the price so the organisers can sell to latecomers. The measurement is the same in both cases, so treat it as a reason to look closer.
Red Flags
- ⚠Sudden price spike of 50%+ with no news or development
- ⚠Social media channels spiking with "don't miss out" messages
- ⚠Very low market cap (easy to manipulate with small capital)
- ⚠Volume massively exceeds normal levels
- ⚠Price collapses within hours of the spike
Volume Above Market Cap
Reported 24-hour trading volume is larger than the entire market capitalisation. We measure the ratio only and cannot attribute the volume to any party. Turnover this high is unusual. It can come from genuine news-driven trading, from market-making activity, or from wash trading, where the same tokens are traded back and forth between related wallets. Market data alone cannot tell these apart.
Red Flags
- ⚠24h trading volume exceeds total market capitalisation
- ⚠Volume is consistent and round-numbered (automated bots)
- ⚠Same addresses repeatedly appear on both buy and sell sides
- ⚠Project lacks any meaningful development or community
- ⚠Listed only on exchanges with known wash trading history
Inactive Market
Very little trading relative to the asset’s size, with the price far below its all-time high. We measure market data only and do not assess development or team activity. When few people trade an asset, larger positions become hard to sell near the quoted price. This pattern fits discontinued projects and also quiet assets in a long bear market; low volume alone does not show that a project has stopped.
Red Flags
- ⚠No GitHub commits in 6+ months
- ⚠Social media accounts inactive for months
- ⚠Team members have deleted or abandoned their profiles
- ⚠Roadmap milestones missed repeatedly with no updates
- ⚠Price down 70%+ from ATH with tiny remaining volume
Large Unreleased Supply
Only a small fraction of the total supply is circulating, so large future unlocks will continuously dilute existing holders. Supply that is not yet circulating is typically released over time to teams, investors, treasuries and reward programmes. If demand does not grow with it, existing holders are diluted. This describes the supply schedule, not anyone’s intentions.
Red Flags
- ⚠Less than 20% of total supply is currently circulating
- ⚠No public vesting schedule or cliff period disclosed
- ⚠Staking yields that seem impossibly high (>1,000% APY)
- ⚠Emission rates that outpace any realistic demand growth
- ⚠Price steadily declining despite claimed utility or growth
Very Small Market Cap
Assets with a very small market cap, where a few thousand dollars of trading can move the price by double-digit percentages. Thin liquidity means a single buyer or seller can set the price. Size is a fact about the asset, not a judgement of the project: every token starts small.
Red Flags
- ⚠Market cap under $1 million
- ⚠Listed only on obscure DEXes with thin liquidity
- ⚠Liquidity pool is small and un-locked
- ⚠Large portion of supply held by a single wallet ("whale risk")
- ⚠No tier-1 or tier-2 exchange listing
Low Free Float
Only a small share of the total supply is circulating. This is an estimate from reported supply figures, not a reading of who holds the tokens. With little supply on the market, the price is set by a small share of the tokens and can move sharply on modest trading. The non-circulating remainder usually includes treasury, vesting and reward allocations that are released over time.
Red Flags
- ⚠Less than 50% of total supply is in free float (circulating)
- ⚠A handful of wallets hold the majority of tokens
- ⚠Price held unnaturally flat at a high level while funding stays negative
- ⚠Extreme fully-diluted valuation versus a tiny circulating market cap
- ⚠A single, sudden 90%+ collapse with no buyer support afterwards
Top-10 Concentration
Measured on-chain: after setting aside burn addresses and labelled exchange, staking, bridge and liquidity wallets, the ten largest remaining addresses hold more than the flag threshold of the supply. It is the most direct measurement we publish. When ownership is this concentrated, a few wallets hold enough supply to move the price on their own. That describes what is possible, not what any holder has done or intends: many young or foundation-heavy projects are concentrated for ordinary reasons.
Red Flags
- ⚠Top 10 non-exchange wallets hold more than 50% of supply
- ⚠A single wallet or cluster holds 20%+ on its own
- ⚠Concentration paired with low free float and high FDV
- ⚠Holder count is low despite a large market cap
- ⚠Wallets received tokens directly from the deployer/team
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